2011-2013 Updating Mongolian Energy Sector Development Master Plan, III

Energy Sector Assessment: (i) review energy sector policy, strategy, laws, and regulations. (ii) Review progress of single buyer model development and sector privatization. (iii) Review the progress and achievement of renewable energy diffusion. (iv) Prepare an inventory of electricity and heating systems, and assess the existing assets in terms of the operating life, available capacity, and loss. (v) Review energy consumption trend. Propose several medium and long-term energy intensity targets. (vi) Review wholesale and retail electricity/heating tariff level, tariff structure, and pricing methodologies. Analyze options for wholesale and retail tariff level/structure. (vii) Conduct managerial and financial capacity assessment of the licensed power enterprises. Develop performance benchmarks and identify measures to improve performance. (viii) Review the national investment budget for energy sector. Identify several scenarios on the size of public investment for energy sector up to 2020. (ix) Develop long-term energy demand and supply model simulating several energy demand growth and optimal energy supply for the planning period up to 2020 in 5 years interval. (x) Develop computed general equilibrium model, and assess impacts of energy demand and supply scenarios on household,industry, state budget, and macro economy. (xi) Prepare policy note specifying priority agenda and actions for energy sector reform and development and size of energy sector investment and its fund sources up to 2020.Study Development Options: (i) Power generation capacity development and loss reduction, including combined heat and power plants, renewable energy power plants, and the other power plants for peak load. (ii) Electric transmission and distribution development including loss reduction which covers central grid system, western grid system, and eastern grid system. (iii) Heat transmission and distribution development including loss reduction which covers the heating systems in centralized and independent, aimag center, and soum center in Ulaanbaatar. (iv) Electricity and heat supply development for universal service access to remote areas including standard stand alone and micro grid project and program design.

Prepare Medium- (5 years) and Long-Term (10 years)Investment Plan: (i) Develop quantitative and qualitative indicators for selecting candidate projects in investment long list. (ii) Develop standard methodologies of financial and economic analysis, indicators, and benchmarks for investment decision. (iii) Identify a long list of candidate projects, and prepare medium- and long-term energy sector investment plan. 

Capacity Development and Knowledge Dissemination: (i)Conduct capacity assessment of government ministries/agencies to identify core capacity needs in energy sector analysis and planning. (ii) Prepare capacity enhancement training module, and conduct capacity development training and seminars in energy sector analysis and planning. (iii) Hold interim and final consultation meetings to disseminate findings and receive comments on outputs

Year: 2011 – 2013

Client: ADB

Financed by: JFPR